The Russian intervention in September 2015 was a central turning point in the Syrian conflict. The resulting territorial regime gains, the ensuing stalemate, the deadlock in political negotiations and the inability to induce meaningful change in Syria frustrated Assad’s detractors and slowly deprioritised resolution of the conflict on the international agenda. However, as the Russian invasion of Ukraine is further distracting the international community’s fading attention away from Syria, it may also trigger new dynamics on the ground and unique opportunities for regional diplomacy. With Russia distracted in Ukraine, regional actors may sense there is an opportunity to press their agendas in Syria.
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